How Fast Are UK Gas Boiler Sales Declining? The Numbers

Every year, 1.5 million UK households install a new gas boiler. That number used to be 1.75 million. The decline is real but gradual — and it tells an important story about the pace of the UK's heating transition. We tracked gas boiler sales data from industry body HHIC, manufacturer reports, and government statistics to map exactly how the market is shifting. The picture is one of slow evolution, not revolution — with significant implications for homeowners making decisions today.

The Sales Data

Excluding the COVID anomaly in 2020, gas boiler sales have declined from 1.75 million (2019) to approximately 1.50 million (2025) — a fall of 14% over six years. The decline accelerated from 2023 onward, coinciding with the BUS grant increase and growing heat pump awareness.

Rate of Decline

At the current rate of decline (3.7% per year), gas boiler sales would not reach zero until approximately 2060 — 25 years behind the government's 2035 target. Reaching the target would require the decline rate to accelerate from 3.7% to roughly 25% per year — a dramatic shift that would require transformative policy intervention.

For context, heat pump installations need to increase from ~105,000 per year to 600,000 per year, while gas boiler installations need to fall from 1.5 million to near zero. Both transitions are significantly behind schedule according to Climate Change Committee assessments.

What Is Driving the Decline

1. Heat pump switching (accounts for ~40% of the decline): Each heat pump installation displaces a future gas boiler sale. The 105,000 heat pumps installed in 2025 represent 105,000 homes that did not buy a gas boiler.
2. New-build market shift (~35%): The Future Homes Standard means new-build homes increasingly use heat pumps rather than gas boilers. This removes roughly 30,000-40,000 annual gas boiler sales from the market.
3. Improved boiler longevity (~15%): Modern condensing boilers last longer than their predecessors, slightly reducing the annual replacement cycle.
4. Smaller household formation (~10%): Changing demographics mean fewer new households requiring heating systems.

The New-Build Effect

The Future Homes Standard, effective from 2025, requires new-build homes to produce 75-80% fewer carbon emissions than current standards. In practice, this means most new-build homes will have heat pumps rather than gas boilers. With approximately 200,000 new homes built per year, this shifts a significant volume of demand away from gas.

However, the retrofit market (existing homes replacing old boilers) is much larger than the new-build market. The 1.5 million annual gas boiler sales are overwhelmingly replacements in existing homes. Until the retrofit market tips decisively toward heat pumps, the overall decline will remain gradual.

How Manufacturers Are Responding

Major boiler manufacturers are hedging their bets:

• Diversifying into heat pumps: Vaillant, Worcester Bosch, and Viessmann all now offer heat pump ranges alongside their gas boiler lines
• Promoting hydrogen-ready boilers: Some manufacturers market "hydrogen-ready" boilers as a transition technology, though the viability of hydrogen for home heating remains highly uncertain
• Hybrid systems: Gas-heat pump hybrid systems are being positioned as a stepping stone technology for homes not yet ready for full heat pump conversion

The industry recognises that gas boiler sales will continue to decline. The question is how fast — and manufacturers are positioning themselves for both gradual transition and rapid disruption scenarios.

What This Means for Homeowners

If you are currently deciding between a new gas boiler and a heat pump, the declining boiler market has several practical implications:

1. A gas boiler bought today is not a stranded asset — yet. It will work for 12-15 years. But by 2038-2041, when it needs replacing, the options, regulations, and costs will look very different.
2. Gas boiler servicing and parts will remain available for the foreseeable future. The installed base of gas boilers is so large that the service industry will persist for decades.
3. Carbon pricing is the wild card. Government plans to increase the carbon price on gas could make gas heating significantly more expensive well before 2035.
4. The BUS grant is available now. A heat pump with a £7,500 grant today may cost less than the equivalent installation in 2030 if the grant is reduced or withdrawn.

For a full financial comparison, see our heat pump vs gas boiler guide and our 20-year lifetime cost analysis. If you are considering combining a heat pump with solar panels, the economics become significantly more favourable.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are gas boiler sales declining in the UK?

Yes. Sales have fallen from 1.75 million in 2019 to approximately 1.5 million in 2025 — a 14% decline. The rate has accelerated since the BUS grant increase in 2023.

When will gas boilers be banned in the UK?

There is no hard ban date for existing homes. The government plans to end gas boilers in new builds from 2025 and phase them out in existing homes by 2035 through incentives and regulations.

How many gas boilers are still sold each year?

Approximately 1.5 million in 2025. Gas boilers still outsell heat pumps by roughly 14:1. The market is declining slowly, not collapsing rapidly.

Should I still buy a gas boiler?

It depends on your circumstances. A boiler bought today will last 12-15 years. By 2038-2041, gas may be significantly more expensive and replacement options may be limited. Where heat pumps are viable, switching now avoids a potentially stranded asset.