2026 and Beyond: What UK Heating Will Look Like in 10 Years

The UK's heating landscape is undergoing its most dramatic transformation since the switch from coal to natural gas in the 1960s and 70s. Over the next decade, millions of gas boilers will be replaced by heat pumps, smart grids will optimise energy use automatically, and the dream of hydrogen boilers will quietly fade into history. Drawing on projections from the Climate Change Committee, DESNZ, the Heat Pump Association, and industry analysis, here is what UK heating will look like in 2036.

Where We Are Now (2026)

As of early 2026, approximately 400,000 heat pumps have been installed in UK homes, according to MCS data. Installation rates are running at approximately 55,000-65,000 per year — growing, but below the government's target of 600,000 per year by 2028.

The BUS grant of £7,500 is supporting adoption, but the pace needs to accelerate dramatically. The Future Homes Standard is ending gas boilers in new builds. The installer workforce is growing but still insufficient. And public awareness is increasing — driven in part by rising gas prices and growing climate concern.

Heat Pumps in 2036: What to Expect

By 2036, the heat pump landscape will look fundamentally different from today.

Technology

• R290 (propane) universal — all brands will use low-GWP R290 refrigerant as standard
• Higher output temperatures — 65-70°C flow temperatures from R290 units, eliminating the need for radiator upgrades in most homes
• AI-powered controls — machine learning will optimise performance, predict maintenance, and integrate with smart grid signals
• Smaller, quieter units — outdoor units will be 30-40% smaller and operating below 30dB
• Pre-packaged systems — "heat pump in a box" solutions for rapid, standardised installation

Costs

Heat pump prices are projected to fall 15-25% over the next decade as manufacturing scales up and competition intensifies. A typical domestic air source heat pump installation that costs £10,000-14,000 today (before grant) may cost £7,500-10,500 by 2036. However, the BUS grant may not continue at its current level — or at all.

Installation Rates

The CCC targets 5.5 million heat pump installations by 2035. Achieving this requires annual installation rates to reach 400,000-600,000 — a massive scaling challenge. By 2036, between 4 and 6 million UK homes are likely to have heat pumps, representing 15-20% of the housing stock.

Source: Projections based on CCC Sixth Carbon Budget pathway, DESNZ policy targets, and Heat Pump Association growth forecasts. Actual trajectory will depend on policy, pricing, and installer capacity.

The Gas Boiler Phase-Out

The gas boiler phase-out is happening in stages:

• 2025-2026: Future Homes Standard effectively ends gas boilers in new-build homes
• 2035 (planned): No new gas boiler installations in off-gas-grid homes (oil/LPG replacement)
• 2035+ (under review): Potential restriction on new gas boiler installations in gas-connected homes

Importantly, existing gas boilers will not be forcibly removed. Homeowners can continue to use their current boiler until it reaches end of life. But when it does need replacing, the options will increasingly steer toward heat pumps.

By 2036, the new gas boiler market will be a fraction of its current size. The installer workforce, manufacturer investment, and supply chain will have shifted overwhelmingly toward heat pumps. Gas boiler parts and servicing may become more expensive and harder to source — a natural consequence of declining demand.

The Hydrogen Reality Check

For several years, the gas industry promoted hydrogen boilers as an alternative to heat pumps — allowing homeowners to keep their gas boiler infrastructure and simply switch the fuel. The 2026 government decision on hydrogen heating effectively closed this door for domestic applications.

The reasons are straightforward:

• Efficiency: Hydrogen boilers are roughly 85% efficient. Heat pumps are 300-400% efficient. Using green electricity to make green hydrogen to burn in a boiler wastes 70% of the energy.
• Cost: Green hydrogen is projected to cost 3-5x more per kWh than electricity. Heat pump running costs would be a fraction of hydrogen boiler costs.
• Infrastructure: Hydrogen requires new pipes, new boilers, new safety frameworks, and enormous production capacity that does not exist.
• Timeline: Even optimistic hydrogen proponents acknowledged it would not be available at scale before 2035-2040 — too late for climate targets.

Hydrogen will have a role in industrial heating and potentially heavy transport. But for domestic heating, heat pumps are the confirmed pathway. If you have been waiting for hydrogen to save your gas boiler, the wait is over — it is not coming.

Smart Grid Integration

By 2036, the electricity grid will be dramatically smarter. Heat pumps will play a central role:

• Time-of-use tariffs — heat pumps will automatically shift heating to periods of cheap electricity (typically overnight and midday), reducing costs by 20-30%
• Grid flexibility services — homeowners may be paid to allow their heat pump to reduce output briefly during peak demand, earning £50-100/year
• Vehicle-to-home — electric vehicle batteries may provide backup electricity for heat pumps during grid stress events
• AI optimisation — machine learning will manage heating, hot water, solar, battery, and grid interaction simultaneously, minimising cost while maximising comfort

Solar, Battery, and Heat Pump Integration

The home of 2036 will increasingly feature an integrated energy system: solar panels generating electricity, a battery storing it, and a heat pump using it for heating and hot water. This combination is already available today — by 2036, it will be mainstream.

Projections suggest that by 2036:

• 40-50% of heat pump homes will also have solar panels
• Battery storage costs will have fallen 40-60% from today's levels
• Integrated controllers will manage all three systems as a single unit
• Some homes will achieve near-zero energy bills for heating

Energy Price Outlook

Energy pricing will evolve significantly over the next decade. The key trends affecting heat pump economics:

The electricity-to-gas price ratio is the single most important factor. Currently, electricity costs roughly 4x as much as gas per kWh. A heat pump with a COP of 3 therefore costs about 33% more per kWh of heat than a gas boiler — though total costs are lower because heat pumps are so much more efficient. If the ratio narrows to 2.5:1 (as many analysts project), heat pump running costs will be definitively and dramatically lower than gas for every property type.

Impact on Property Values

By 2036, a home's heating system will be a significant factor in its market value — much more so than today.

• EPC requirements: Minimum EPC ratings for rental and sale properties are expected to tighten, penalising gas-heated homes with poor ratings
• Mortgage considerations: Lenders are beginning to factor energy costs into affordability assessments — cheaper-to-heat homes qualify for larger mortgages
• Buyer preferences: Younger buyers increasingly prioritise sustainability, making heat pump homes more desirable
• Future-proofing: A home with a heat pump, solar panels, and good insulation is future-proofed against gas boiler restrictions and energy price rises

Early research from the ONS and property analysts suggests that homes with EPC Band A or B already command a 5-15% price premium over equivalent Band D-E properties. This premium is expected to increase as policy tightens.

The 10-Year Timeline

Should You Wait?

No. This is the most important question, and the answer is unambiguous. Waiting costs you money. Here is why:

• Every year you wait is a year of higher fuel bills you could have avoided — £200-1,500 depending on your current fuel
• The BUS grant of £7,500 may not continue at this level — it could be reduced or restructured
• Current heat pump technology is excellent — future improvements will be incremental, not revolutionary
• Installer availability will tighten as demand increases — getting quotes now is easier than it will be in 2028
• Property value benefits start accumulating from the day of installation
• Carbon reduction is urgent — every year on gas is a year of avoidable emissions

The best time to install a heat pump was 5 years ago. The second-best time is now.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will gas boilers be banned?

New gas boilers are ending in new builds now. For existing homes, replacement restrictions start from 2035 for off-gas properties. Existing boilers can continue operating — they will not be removed.

How many homes will have heat pumps by 2036?

An estimated 4-6 million, representing 15-20% of UK housing. All new builds will have heat pumps. The CCC targets 5.5 million by 2035.

Will heat pumps get cheaper?

Yes — 15-25% over the next decade. But the BUS grant may not continue. Buying now with the grant may be better value than waiting for lower prices without it.

What about hydrogen?

The 2026 government decision confirmed hydrogen is not coming for domestic heating. Heat pumps are the confirmed pathway. Our coverage of the hydrogen boiler myth explains why.

Will electricity get cheaper?

Relative to gas, yes. Green levy rebalancing and increasing renewable generation are expected to narrow the electricity-gas price ratio significantly by 2030.

Should I wait or install now?

Install now. The BUS grant, proven technology, and rising fossil fuel costs all favour acting today. Every year of delay costs you £200-1,500 in higher fuel bills.