The State of Heat Pumps in the UK: 2026 Report

This is our comprehensive annual assessment of the UK heat pump market — where it stands, how it got here, and where it is heading. Drawing on data from MCS, DESNZ, Ofgem, Nesta, and the Heat Pump Association, this report covers installation numbers, market trends, policy developments, consumer satisfaction, regional performance, and the challenges that remain. If you want to understand the full picture of heat pumps in Britain today, start here.

The UK heat pump market in 2026 is at an inflection point. Installation numbers are growing steadily, consumer awareness is rising, and the policy framework is broadly supportive. But the gap between current performance and government targets remains large, installer capacity is stretched, and the economics — while improving — are not yet compelling enough to drive mass adoption without continued grant support.

This report synthesises data from across the industry to give you the most complete picture available. For homeowners considering a heat pump, it provides context for your decision. For policymakers and industry participants, it highlights what is working and what needs to change. For background on the technology itself, see our comprehensive guide to air source heat pumps.

Executive Summary

Key findings from our 2026 analysis:

• Growth is strong but insufficient: 250,000 installations in 2025, up 25-30% year-on-year, but well below the 600,000/year target for 2028
• The BUS grant is working: Grant-supported installations account for approximately 70% of the market, confirming the grant's importance
• Consumer satisfaction is high: Over 80% of owners report being satisfied or very satisfied
• Installer capacity is the binding constraint: Wait times of 2-6 months in many areas limit uptake
• Costs are falling: Average installation costs have declined approximately 8% in real terms since 2024
• The electricity price ratio remains a challenge: Until rebalancing occurs, running cost parity with gas limits the financial motivation to switch

Installation Numbers and Trends

The growth trajectory is encouraging — installations have roughly quadrupled in four years — but the rate of acceleration needs to increase further. Achieving 600,000 per year by 2028 requires an additional 350,000 installations per year within just two years, demanding both more installers and stronger consumer demand.

Market Size and Economics

The UK domestic heat pump market is estimated to be worth approximately £3.5-4.0 billion in 2025, encompassing equipment, installation, ancillary components (cylinders, radiators, controls), and servicing. This makes it one of the fastest-growing sectors in UK construction.

Average installation costs have been declining as the market scales, supply chains mature, and installer productivity improves. The average cost of a domestic air source heat pump installation fell from approximately £13,500 in 2023 to approximately £12,000 in 2025 (before the BUS grant). After the £7,500 grant, the average out-of-pocket cost is approximately £4,500 — approaching the cost of a mid-range boiler installation. For detailed current pricing, see our cost guide.

Policy Landscape

The policy framework supporting heat pumps in 2026 includes:

• Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS): £7,500 grant extended to 2028, with increased annual budget
• Future Homes Standard: Mandating low-carbon heating in new builds from 2025
• Clean Heat Market Mechanism: Requiring boiler manufacturers to sell a growing proportion of heat pumps
• ECO4 and HUG2: Funding heat pumps for low-income and fuel-poor households
• VAT at 0%: Energy-saving installations zero-rated until 2027
• Proposed 2035 gas boiler phase-out: Under consultation, this would end new gas boiler installations

For a detailed breakdown of grants, see our grants guide or use the eligibility checker.

Consumer Satisfaction

Consumer satisfaction data from Nesta and the Energy Saving Trust shows a consistently positive picture:

The main dissatisfaction drivers are running costs higher than expected (often due to suboptimal tariff choice or setup), installation quality issues (traced to specific installers rather than technology), and the adjustment period (learning to live with a system that operates differently from a boiler). For real owner experiences, see our first winter stories.

Installer Capacity

The installer workforce is growing but remains the biggest bottleneck. Current estimates suggest 15,000-20,000 heat pump-trained installers in the UK, against a need for 30,000-40,000 to deliver the 2028 target.

Key workforce developments:

• MCS-certified installer numbers have roughly doubled since 2023
• Major training providers are expanding capacity
• Manufacturer training academies are running at full capacity
• Government skills funding is supporting the transition

For insight into the installer perspective, see our roundup of plumbers who retrained as installers. For the full installer market report, see our dedicated analysis.

Regional Breakdown

For detailed regional analysis, see our county-by-county interactive map and regional scorecard.

Technology Trends

Key technology developments in the UK market:

• R290 (propane) refrigerant adoption: Lower GWP refrigerants becoming standard in new models
• Smart controls integration: Heat pumps increasingly connected to smart home systems and demand-response platforms
• Hybrid systems: Combined heat pump + boiler systems growing in the retrofit market
• Higher temperature heat pumps: New models capable of 65-80°C output, reducing radiator upgrade requirements
• Solar integration: Growing trend of combined heat pump + solar panel installations

Remaining Challenges

Despite strong progress, significant challenges remain:

1. Installer capacity: The most acute constraint — needs to double within two years
2. Electricity price ratio: Until electricity becomes cheaper relative to gas, the financial case relies on grants
3. Consumer awareness: Many homeowners remain unfamiliar with heat pump technology
4. Upfront cost: Even after the BUS grant, £4,000-£10,000 out-of-pocket is a barrier for many
5. Installation disruption: The 2-3 day installation process is more disruptive than a boiler swap
6. Policy uncertainty: The lack of confirmed detail on the 2035 gas boiler phase-out creates hesitation

Outlook for 2027 and Beyond

The medium-term outlook for UK heat pumps is positive but challenging:

• 2026: Installations expected to reach 300,000-350,000 as installer capacity grows and the Clean Heat Market Mechanism takes effect
• 2027: Target of 450,000-500,000, dependent on electricity price rebalancing and continued BUS grant
• 2028: Government target of 600,000 — achievable if current growth rates accelerate and policy support strengthens
• 2030: 5 million installed base target — requires sustained effort at 600,000+ per year
• 2035: Proposed end of new gas boiler installations — would transform the market if confirmed

Frequently Asked Questions

How many heat pumps were installed in the UK in 2025?

Approximately 250,000, representing 25-30% growth on 2024. This includes about 210,000 air source and 40,000 ground source and hybrid systems.

What is the total number of heat pumps installed in the UK?

Approximately 750,000-800,000 as of early 2026, representing about 3% of UK households.

Is the UK on track for its heat pump targets?

No, but the gap is narrowing. Current rates of 250,000/year need to more than double to reach 600,000 by 2028.

Which heat pump brands are most popular?

Mitsubishi, Vaillant, Daikin, Samsung, Grant, and Bosch are the most commonly installed brands based on MCS data.

What are the biggest barriers to adoption?

Upfront cost, installer availability, consumer awareness, the electricity-to-gas price ratio, and disruption concerns.