The UK Heating Decarbonisation Progress Report
Home heating produces 14% of UK carbon emissions — more than all cars on British roads. Decarbonising these emissions is essential for meeting legally binding net zero targets, yet the Climate Change Committee has repeatedly identified heating as the area most behind schedule. This progress report tracks where the UK stands, what has been achieved, what remains to be done, and what individual homeowners can do to contribute.
The UK's Climate Change Act commits the country to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with interim carbon budgets requiring steep reductions along the way. Home heating — which produces approximately 60-65 million tonnes of CO2 annually — must be almost entirely decarbonised to meet these targets. The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has described heating as the "most challenging" sector for decarbonisation, and its annual progress reports consistently show the UK falling behind.
This report assesses where we stand in 2026 — acknowledging both the genuine progress that has been made and the significant challenges that remain. For the individual homeowner perspective, our heat pump vs gas boiler comparison covers the personal decision.
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Current Status: A Mixed Picture
60-62 Mt CO2
current annual heating emissions
8-10%
reduction since 2019
3-4%
of homes decarbonised
Behind
CCC required trajectory
The UK has made measurable progress since the heating decarbonisation programme began in earnest around 2019-2020. Annual emissions from domestic heating have fallen by approximately 8-10%, driven by a combination of heat pump installations, improved insulation, warmer winters, and grid decarbonisation. However, the pace of change remains well below what the CCC considers necessary to meet the Sixth Carbon Budget.
Emissions Data and Trends
| Year | Domestic Heating Emissions (Mt CO2) | Heat Pumps Installed (Cumulative) | % Homes Decarbonised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 67 | ~180,000 | ~0.7% |
| 2020 | 65 | ~215,000 | ~0.8% |
| 2021 | 66 | ~270,000 | ~1.0% |
| 2022 | 64 | ~340,000 | ~1.3% |
| 2023 | 63 | ~470,000 | ~1.8% |
| 2024 | 62 | ~665,000 | ~2.5% |
| 2025 | 60-62 | ~800,000 | ~3.2% |
| 2030 (target) | 45-50 | ~5,000,000 | ~18% |
| 2050 (target) | ~0 | ~23,000,000 | ~100% |
Data from DESNZ, CCC, and MCS. Some figures estimated from partial-year data.
Heat Pump Deployment Progress
Heat pump installations have grown impressively in absolute terms — from 35,000 in 2020 to approximately 250,000 in 2025. However, even at this accelerated pace, the UK has installed fewer than 1 million heat pumps against a target of 5 million by 2030. The annual rate needs to more than double to get on track.
Key progress indicators:
- Installation rate: ~250,000/year (target: 600,000 by 2028) — approximately 40% of target
- Installer workforce: ~18,000 MCS-certified (target: ~35,000) — approximately 50% of target
- Cost reduction: Average costs down ~15% since 2023 — on track
- Consumer satisfaction: 83% satisfied — excellent and growing
For the full market analysis, see our State of Heat Pumps 2026 report. For grant information, visit our grants guide.
Building Fabric Improvements
Insulation improvements complement heat pump deployment by reducing the heat demand of UK homes. Progress has been slower than needed:
- Cavity wall insulation: Approximately 70% of suitable homes now insulated — up from 65% in 2020
- Loft insulation (adequate depth): Approximately 60% of homes — only modest improvement
- Solid wall insulation: Only 5-7% of solid-walled homes — severely behind target
The insulation gap is particularly concerning because poorly insulated homes need larger, more expensive heat pumps and cost more to heat. Our budget builder shows the cost impact of insulation on heat pump sizing.
Policy Effectiveness Assessment
| Policy | Effectiveness Rating | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| BUS Grant (£7,500) | High | Driving ~70% of installations. Extended to 2028. |
| ECO4 | Medium | Effective for fuel-poor but complex to access |
| HUG2 | Medium | Good funding but patchy council delivery |
| Future Homes Standard | High | Mandating heat pumps in new builds |
| Clean Heat Market Mechanism | Too early to assess | Taking effect 2026 — potential game-changer |
| Electricity price rebalancing | Not yet implemented | Critical for making heat pumps clearly cheaper than gas |
Grid Decarbonisation Benefits
As the electricity grid decarbonises, every heat pump automatically becomes greener. Grid carbon intensity has fallen from 380 gCO2/kWh in 2015 to approximately 193 gCO2/kWh in 2026, with a target of 50 gCO2/kWh by 2035. This means a heat pump installed today will produce roughly 75% less carbon by 2035 than it does now — without any changes to the system itself. Combined with solar panels, some homes are already approaching near-zero heating emissions. Our carbon calculator quantifies this benefit.
International Comparison
The UK significantly lags Scandinavian leaders but is growing faster than most European peers. Learning from Norway and Sweden's success — particularly on electricity pricing policy and installer training — could accelerate UK progress.
The Remaining Gap
Despite progress, the gap between current trajectory and required trajectory is concerning:
- Installation rate gap: 250,000/yr vs 600,000/yr target — needs to more than double
- Cumulative installations gap: ~800,000 vs 5 million by 2030 target — needs rapid acceleration
- Solid wall insulation gap: 5-7% coverage vs target of 30%+ — severely behind
- Electricity price ratio gap: 3.6:1 vs target of ~2.5:1 — rebalancing overdue
What Needs to Happen Next
Based on CCC recommendations and industry analysis, the following actions are critical:
- Rebalance electricity and gas prices — the single most impactful policy change available
- Confirm the 2035 gas boiler phase-out — providing certainty for consumers, installers, and investors
- Accelerate installer training — doubling the qualified workforce within two years
- Extend and expand the BUS grant — maintaining momentum beyond 2028
- Improve solid wall insulation uptake — through targeted grants and innovative solutions
Every installation counts
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Frequently Asked Questions
How much has UK home heating emissions fallen?
Approximately 8-10% since 2019, from ~67 Mt CO2 to ~60-62 Mt CO2, driven by heat pumps, insulation, and grid decarbonisation.
Is the UK on track to decarbonise heating by 2050?
No. Current rates need to more than double. The CCC has warned heating is the area most behind schedule.
What percentage of homes have been decarbonised?
Approximately 3-4% have heat pumps or other low-carbon primary heating. 96-97% still use fossil fuels.
What are the biggest barriers?
Electricity-to-gas price ratio, installer capacity, upfront cost, consumer awareness, and policy uncertainty.
How does the UK compare internationally?
Behind Scandinavia (50-60% penetration) and France, but growing faster than most European peers.
Take action — switch to a heat pump
Calculate your savings and impactSee your personal contribution to the UK's decarbonisation effort.
Heating Decarbonisation in the Net Zero Context
Decarbonising home heating is one of the three pillars of the UK's net zero strategy, alongside transport electrification and clean power generation. Heat pumps are the primary technology for achieving this goal, supported by the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, building insulation programmes, and electricity grid decarbonisation. Combined with solar energy and smart tariffs, the pathway to zero-carbon home heating is clear — the challenge is accelerating the transition fast enough to meet the UK's legally binding targets.