Heat Pump Installer Shortages by Region: Where the Bottleneck Is

The UK government wants 600,000 heat pump installations per year by 2028. It currently has around 6,200 MCS-certified installer companies to do the work. The maths does not add up — and the shortage is not evenly distributed. Some regions have reasonable installer coverage. Others have genuine deserts. We mapped every MCS-certified heat pump installer in the UK against local demand to reveal where the bottleneck is tightest.

The installer shortage is the single biggest constraint on UK heat pump adoption. You can have all the grants, policy targets, and consumer enthusiasm in the world — but if there are not enough trained people to install heat pumps, the transition stalls. The Nesta analysis of heat pump scaling identified workforce capacity as the primary bottleneck, and our data confirms this at regional level.

We sourced installer numbers from the MCS installer database, cross-referenced with industry body data. Demand estimates use our installation tracker data and DESNZ BUS grant statistics.

The National Installer Picture

Each MCS-certified company typically employs 2-4 trained heat pump engineers, giving a total workforce of approximately 15,000-20,000 individuals. At the current rate of roughly 17-20 installations per installer company per year, the 6,200 companies can deliver around 105,000-124,000 installations annually — broadly matching current output.

To reach 600,000 installations per year, the UK would need approximately 30,000 installer companies (or dramatically increased throughput per company), plus all the supporting surveyors, designers, electricians, and scaffolders that each installation requires.

Regional Installer Density

The North East has barely half the installer density of the South East. This directly translates into longer waiting times (16 vs 7 weeks), higher prices (as our regional cost analysis confirms), and reduced consumer choice.

Regions with the Worst Shortages

North East England — Severe

With just 160 MCS-certified companies serving 1.86 million households, the North East has the most acute shortage. Homeowners report typical waits of 14-18 weeks, with some areas of Northumberland and County Durham seeing even longer delays. The shortage also means less price competition — our cost data shows North East prices running 5-8% above what installer density models would predict.

Wales — Severe

Wales has 240 installer companies for 2.45 million households. Rural mid-Wales is particularly underserved, with some postcodes having no MCS installer within a 30-mile radius. The Welsh Government's Nest scheme creates additional demand, but without matching installer supply growth, the scheme risks creating longer waits rather than faster adoption.

Scotland — High

Scotland's 380 installer companies are concentrated in the Central Belt. The Highlands, Islands, Borders, and Dumfries and Galloway are significantly underserved. Despite Scotland's generous grant funding through Home Energy Scotland, installer capacity is the binding constraint on growth.

Best-Supplied Regions

The South East, South West, and East of England have the strongest installer coverage. This is partly historical — these regions saw the earliest heat pump adoption (driven by off-gas-grid properties in the South West) and installer businesses followed demand. The South East benefits from London overspill, with many installers based just outside the M25 serving both areas.

Impact on Waiting Times

Impact on Prices

Installer shortage correlates directly with higher prices. Our 10,000-installation cost analysis shows that regions with fewer installers per capita charge more — because installers in undersupplied areas can be more selective about jobs and charge premium rates. The correlation is not perfect (London has high prices despite moderate installer numbers, due to other cost factors), but the trend is clear.

More installers means more competition, which means better prices for consumers. This is why the West Midlands — with strong installer growth — has seen some of the biggest price drops in our data.

The Training Pipeline

The UK is training new heat pump installers, but not fast enough. According to MCS and industry training providers:

• Approximately 1,500-1,800 new MCS certifications are being granted per year (2025 data)
• Around 400-500 existing installer companies leave the market each year (retiring, switching back to gas, business closure)
• Net growth is therefore around 1,000-1,200 companies per year
• At this rate, reaching 30,000 companies would take 20+ years

The main barriers to faster training are: the cost of MCS certification (£2,000-£5,000 plus assessment fees), the time required (typically 6-12 months of training plus supervised installations), and the perceived risk for gas engineers of switching to an uncertain new market.

What Needs to Change

Based on our analysis and conversations with industry stakeholders, the following would accelerate workforce growth:

1. Subsidise training costs: Making MCS certification free or heavily subsidised (as some European countries do) would remove the biggest barrier for gas engineers considering the switch
2. Guarantee demand: Long-term, predictable government targets with guaranteed funding give installers confidence to invest in training
3. Streamline MCS certification: The current process is thorough but slow. Accelerating assessment timelines without compromising quality would help
4. Regional incentives: Higher training subsidies for shortage regions (North East, Wales, rural Scotland) could direct new capacity where it is needed most
5. Apprenticeship pathways: Creating dedicated heat pump apprenticeships (not just bolt-ons to plumbing courses) would build a pipeline of specialist installers

For homeowners in shortage regions, the practical advice is to start the process early, get multiple quotes (use our quote comparison service), and book well ahead of when you want the installation completed — especially if targeting the autumn season.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many MCS-certified heat pump installers are there in the UK?

As of early 2026, there are approximately 6,200 MCS-certified heat pump installer companies. This represents growth of around 28% since 2024, but remains far short of the estimated 30,000+ needed to meet government targets.

What is the average waiting time for a heat pump installation?

The national average from survey to completed installation is approximately 8-12 weeks. In undersupplied regions like the North East and Wales, waits can extend to 14-18 weeks. In well-supplied regions like the South East, 6-10 weeks is typical.

Which regions have the worst heat pump installer shortages?

The North East, Wales, and parts of rural Scotland have the most acute shortages. The North East has just 8.6 MCS installers per 100,000 households — less than half the South East's density.

Are more people training as heat pump installers?

Yes. New MCS certifications are running at approximately 1,500-1,800 per year, up from 800-1,000 in 2023. However, net growth is around 1,000-1,200 annually. At this rate, reaching target workforce levels would take over 20 years.