Should I Get a Heat Pump or Wait?
It is one of the most common questions we hear: "I know heat pumps are coming, but should I get one now or wait for prices to drop and the technology to improve?" It is a fair question, and the answer depends on your specific situation. But for most homeowners, the case for acting sooner rather than later is strong.
Let us walk through the key factors — current incentives, technology readiness, price trends, energy costs, and future policy — to help you make a well-informed decision.
The Case for Getting a Heat Pump Now
1. The BUS Grant Is Available Now — and May Not Last
The Boiler Upgrade Scheme currently offers £7,500 towards the cost of a heat pump. This is the most generous heat pump subsidy the UK has ever offered. The scheme is currently funded until March 2028, but there is no guarantee it will be extended at the same level — or at all.
Government grants tend to be reduced over time as adoption increases. The BUS grant itself started at £5,000 and was raised to £7,500 to boost uptake. Once installation numbers reach target levels, there will be less political pressure to maintain the subsidy.
If you wait three years, you might be looking at a smaller grant — or no grant at all.
2. The Technology Is Already Mature
Some people assume heat pumps are "new" technology that will improve dramatically in the next few years. This is a misconception. Heat pumps have been heating homes in Scandinavia, Japan, and North America for decades. The core technology — vapour-compression refrigeration — is the same technology that powers your fridge, and it has been around for over a century.
Will there be incremental improvements? Yes — compressors will get slightly more efficient, controls will get smarter, and noise levels will continue to fall. But these will be marginal gains, not revolutionary leaps. A heat pump installed today will perform well for 20-25 years.
3. Every Year You Wait, You Pay More for Gas
If your current heating system runs on gas, oil, or LPG, every year you wait is a year of paying fossil fuel prices. Gas prices are unlikely to fall significantly in the long term — the UK's domestic gas production continues to decline, making us more dependent on volatile international markets.
The running costs of a heat pump are already competitive with gas for well-insulated homes. And the government has committed to rebalancing energy levies to make electricity cheaper relative to gas, which will tip the scales further.
4. Installer Availability May Get Worse Before It Gets Better
The UK currently has a shortage of experienced heat pump installers. As the 2035 gas boiler phase-out approaches, demand for heat pump installations will surge. Getting a good installer now, while the market is not yet overwhelmed, means you are more likely to get a quality installation with proper attention to your property's needs.
By 2030-2033, when millions of homeowners will be looking to switch, waiting times could be months rather than weeks, and the pressure on installers could lead to more rushed jobs.
5. Your Home's Value Benefits
Properties with heat pumps consistently achieve higher Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) ratings. As energy efficiency becomes a bigger factor in property valuations and mortgage decisions, a heat pump can add value to your home. This benefit accrues from the day you install it — waiting means missing out.
The Case for Waiting
1. Prices Are Likely to Fall Somewhat
Heat pump installation costs have been gradually falling as manufacturing scales up and competition increases. Industry forecasts suggest prices could drop by 10-20% over the next five years as more manufacturers enter the UK market and supply chains mature.
However, this needs to be weighed against the risk of losing the BUS grant. A 15% price reduction on a £12,000 installation saves you £1,800 — but if the grant has been reduced from £7,500 to £5,000, you are actually £1,700 worse off.
2. Electricity Pricing May Improve
The government has pledged to reform energy pricing to make electricity cheaper relative to gas. This would improve the running cost savings from a heat pump. If you wait, you might benefit from lower electricity prices.
But this reform has been promised for several years and has not yet materialised. Waiting for government policy changes is risky — they may come later than expected, or in a different form than anticipated.
3. Your Current Boiler May Have Years of Life Left
If your gas boiler is relatively new (less than 5 years old), well-maintained, and running efficiently, there is no urgency to replace it. The most cost-effective time to switch is when your existing system needs replacing anyway.
That said, even a working boiler costs money to run. If your home is well-insulated and you can access the BUS grant, the maths may favour switching even before your boiler fails.
4. Your Home May Need Preparation First
If your home has poor insulation — single glazing, uninsulated walls, a draughty loft — it makes sense to address these issues before installing a heat pump. Insulating first will:
- Reduce the size (and cost) of heat pump you need
- Improve the efficiency and running costs of the heat pump
- Save money on your current gas bills in the meantime
Check your home's readiness with our suitability checker.
What About New Refrigerants and Technology?
Some people are waiting for "next-generation" heat pumps using new refrigerants like propane (R290) or CO₂ (R744). These natural refrigerants have lower global warming potential and can achieve slightly higher efficiencies.
The reality: propane heat pumps are already available from several manufacturers, and they work well. CO₂ heat pumps are more niche and mainly suited to hot water production. Neither represents a reason to delay — if you want a propane unit, you can get one now.
The Decision Framework
Here is a practical framework to help you decide:
Get a Heat Pump Now If:
- Your boiler is over 10 years old or unreliable
- Your home has reasonable insulation (cavity walls filled, loft insulated, double glazing)
- You can access the BUS grant
- You plan to stay in your home for at least 5 years
- You are on oil or LPG (the savings are immediate and significant)
- You want to reduce your carbon footprint
Consider Waiting If:
- Your boiler is less than 5 years old and working well
- Your home has poor insulation and you cannot afford to improve it yet
- You are planning to move within the next 2 years
- You are doing a major renovation and want to incorporate the heat pump into the project
Take Action Now but Install Later:
- If your home needs insulation work, start that now and plan the heat pump installation for when the insulation is done
- Get quotes now to understand the costs and options, even if you are not ready to commit
- Apply for the BUS grant voucher — it is valid for 3 months and can be extended
Our Recommendation
For most homeowners in a reasonably well-insulated home with a boiler that is approaching the end of its life, we recommend acting now. The combination of the £7,500 BUS grant, competitive running costs, and future-proofing makes a compelling case.
The "perfect time" to switch will always be in the future — there will always be a reason to wait a little longer. But the BUS grant is available now, energy prices are what they are now, and your current boiler is costing you money now. Waiting for marginal improvements in technology or pricing risks missing out on the most generous subsidy the UK has offered.
Start by getting quotes from vetted installers through our free service, and use our calculator to see what the numbers look like for your specific situation. Check whether your home is ready with our value assessment.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will heat pump prices drop significantly in the next few years?
Prices are expected to fall by 10-20% over the next five years as manufacturing scales up. However, if the BUS grant is reduced or removed in the same period, the net cost to homeowners could actually increase. The combination of current prices plus the full £7,500 grant is likely to be competitive with future lower prices minus a smaller grant.
Is heat pump technology going to improve dramatically soon?
No. Heat pump technology is mature, with decades of proven performance globally. There will be incremental improvements in efficiency, noise, and size, but no revolutionary breakthroughs are expected. A heat pump installed today will serve you well for 20-25 years.
Should I wait until the gas boiler ban takes effect?
Waiting until 2035 means 9 more years of gas bills, missing the BUS grant, and facing a surge in demand that could mean longer waiting times and higher prices. If your home is suitable, acting before the deadline makes more financial sense than waiting for it.
What if I am on a fixed-rate gas tariff?
A fixed-rate gas tariff protects you from short-term price spikes but does not change the long-term direction of gas prices. When your fix expires, you will be exposed to whatever the market rate is at that point. A heat pump removes your dependence on gas prices entirely.
Can I get a heat pump and keep my gas boiler as backup?
Yes, hybrid systems that combine a heat pump with an existing gas boiler are available. The heat pump handles heating most of the time, with the boiler kicking in only on the coldest days. This can be a good transitional approach, though it does not qualify for the BUS grant as a standalone option.