The UK Heat Map: Where Heat Pumps Make Most Sense
Heat pumps work brilliantly across the entire UK — as our cold weather data analysis proves. But the financial case varies by region, influenced by local climate, existing fuel type, housing stock, and installer availability. This guide maps heat pump suitability across every UK region, showing where the savings are greatest and where the opportunity is strongest.
Using data from the BUS grant statistics, Ofgem energy data, and Met Office climate records, we have created a comprehensive regional breakdown that helps you understand how heat pumps perform in your part of the country.
Check your area specifically
Get Your Regional Cost EstimateOur calculator uses climate data for your specific location. Free, 2 minutes.
Regional Overview: Heat Pump Suitability by Area
| Region | Avg Winter Temp | Expected COP | Off-Grid % | Savings Potential | BUS Uptake Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South East | 5-6°C | 3.0-3.5 | 8% | Moderate | Medium |
| South West | 5-7°C | 3.0-3.5 | 22% | Very High | High |
| East of England | 4-5°C | 2.8-3.3 | 15% | High | Medium-High |
| West Midlands | 4-5°C | 2.8-3.3 | 10% | Moderate | Medium |
| East Midlands | 3-5°C | 2.8-3.2 | 12% | High | Medium |
| Yorkshire & Humber | 3-5°C | 2.7-3.2 | 11% | High | Medium |
| North West | 3-5°C | 2.7-3.2 | 9% | Moderate | Medium |
| North East | 2-4°C | 2.6-3.0 | 14% | High | Medium |
| Wales | 3-6°C | 2.8-3.3 | 25% | Very High | High |
| Scotland (Lowlands) | 2-4°C | 2.6-3.0 | 18% | High | Medium-High |
| Scotland (Highlands) | 0-3°C | 2.4-2.8 | 40%+ | Very High | High |
Sources: Met Office 30-year averages, Energy Systems Catapult monitoring data, DESNZ BUS statistics. Off-grid % from sub-national gas consumption statistics.
South East and London
The south-east has the mildest winters in the UK, with average winter temperatures of 5-6°C. This delivers the highest average COP values (3.0-3.5) and the lowest heating demand. However, most homes are on the gas grid, which means savings versus gas are moderate on standard tariffs. The region benefits from good installer availability and strong BUS grant infrastructure.
Best candidates: Homes with older, inefficient gas boilers; properties also considering solar panels (excellent solar resource in the south-east); off-grid properties in rural Kent, Sussex, or Surrey.
South West England
The south-west is a heat pump sweet spot. It combines mild winters (5-7°C) with the highest proportion of off-gas-grid properties in England (22%). Homes on oil and LPG heating see the strongest financial case for switching, with savings of £500-£1,000+ per year on running costs. BUS grant uptake in the south-west is among the highest nationally.
Best candidates: Oil and LPG heated homes in Devon, Cornwall, Somerset, and Dorset. The combination of mild climate and high fossil fuel costs makes the south-west one of the best regions for heat pump economics.
The Midlands
The Midlands offers solid heat pump economics with average winter temperatures of 4-5°C and a mix of gas, oil, and LPG heated homes. Urban areas like Birmingham and Nottingham have high gas grid coverage; rural areas in Shropshire, Herefordshire, and Lincolnshire have significant off-grid proportions where savings are strongest.
Northern England
Northern England has colder winters (2-5°C) but heat pumps still perform excellently. Monitoring data from the Electrification of Heat trials shows seasonal COP values of 2.6-3.0 in northern installations — slightly lower than the south but still highly efficient. Off-grid areas in Northumberland, Cumbria, and the Yorkshire Dales offer strong savings.
Wales
Wales has the second-highest off-grid proportion in Great Britain (25%), making it another heat pump sweet spot. The BUS grant applies across Wales, and the Welsh Government provides additional energy efficiency support. Climate varies from mild coastal areas (5-7°C winter) to colder upland areas (2-4°C), but all are well within heat pump operating range.
Scotland
Scotland offers the most generous heat pump support through Home Energy Scotland — up to £7,500 grant plus £7,500 interest-free loan. With 40%+ off-grid in the Highlands and islands, and a strong policy commitment to decarbonisation, Scotland is a rapidly growing heat pump market. As our cold weather analysis demonstrates, Scottish winters are well within heat pump capability.
Check your specific area
Check Your Home's SuitabilityRegional climate data factored into your assessment. Free, 2 minutes.
Off-Grid Hotspots: Where Savings Are Highest
The strongest financial case for heat pumps exists in off-grid areas where homes currently use oil, LPG, or direct electric heating. These fuel sources cost 50-200% more per unit of heat than a heat pump on electricity. The main off-grid concentrations are:
- Cornwall, Devon, Somerset: High oil and LPG use, mild climate, excellent savings
- Rural Wales: High oil use, generous grant support, good climate
- Scottish Highlands and Islands: Oil/LPG/electric heating, best grant support in the UK
- Rural East Anglia: Oil heating widespread, good climate for heat pumps
- Northumberland and Cumbria: Oil heating common, strong savings potential
Key Regional Factors That Affect Suitability
| Factor | Impact on Heat Pump Economics | Regional Variation |
|---|---|---|
| Average winter temperature | 5-10% on running costs | London 5°C vs Inverness 2°C |
| Current fuel type | 30-60% on savings | Gas (low saving) vs oil/LPG (high saving) |
| Housing age/insulation | 20-40% on running costs | South-east newer stock vs Wales/Scotland older |
| Installer availability | 5-15% on install cost | Good in south, improving in north/Scotland |
| Grant availability | Major impact on upfront cost | Scotland best (grant+loan), England/Wales BUS |
The most important factor is not regional climate — it is your current fuel type. An oil-heated home in cold Scotland saves more by switching to a heat pump than a gas-heated home in warm London. The running cost comparison makes this clear across every scenario.
Get savings data for your specific postcode
Calculate Your Regional SavingsClimate-adjusted estimates for your area. Free, under 2 minutes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do heat pumps work better in some parts of the UK?
Slightly — southern England achieves COP 3.0-3.5 versus Scotland's 2.6-3.0. But this 5-10% difference is far less significant than your current fuel type, insulation level, or tariff choice.
Where do heat pumps save the most money?
Off-gas-grid areas replacing oil or LPG — particularly south-west England, rural Wales, and Scotland. Savings of £500-£1,000+ per year are typical.
Which regions have highest uptake?
South-west England, rural Wales, and Scotland — driven by high off-grid proportions and strong grant support.
Does my regional climate matter much?
Only marginally. The UK's climate variation is modest. The difference between London and Inverness is approximately 5-10% in efficiency — far less than other factors.
Are there regional cost differences?
Labour rates vary 5-15% by region (higher in London/south-east). Equipment costs are national. Grants are consistent (£7,500 BUS in England/Wales, separate scheme in Scotland).
Which areas have most installers?
South-east, south-west, and Midlands have the highest MCS-installer density. All areas are served, but rural/remote locations may have fewer local options.
Heat Pumps Work Across the Whole UK
Heat pumps are effective in every UK region — from Cornwall to the Scottish Highlands. The BUS grant and Scottish schemes make them affordable everywhere. Running costs favour heat pumps in every region, especially for off-grid homes. Combining with solar panels further improves economics across all areas. Your region determines the precise numbers — but the conclusion is the same everywhere: heat pumps are the smart choice.